Australia

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Australian territory is 0.2%, a minimal risk. Australia’s strong institutions, high economic capacity, geographic isolation, and absence of modern civil war or sustained insurgency provide substantial protection against domestic armed conflict. Its history also includes no successful invasion or prolonged interstate fighting on the mainland.

Recent reporting highlights the United States’ expanding military access in Australia. The Guardian reported on 7 September 2026 that US-controlled weapons companies and forces have access to more than 100 facilities across the country, including major strategic sites. This involves Australia, the United States, and any potential adversary observing or contesting their alliance, but the reporting describes exposure and debate rather than armed violence on Australian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether Australia’s growing role in US military planning could make it a target during a future wider confrontation. A direct attack on an Australian base or mainland infrastructure, or sustained domestic violence involving armed political or separatist groups, would raise risk; continued alliance management, effective institutions, and the absence of such attacks would support the minimal assessment.