Kiribati

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Kiribati is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Kiribati has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate warfare, and its remote Pacific location, small population, and generally peaceful political environment provide substantial protection against organised armed violence.

Recent reporting offers no indication of armed mobilisation, domestic unrest, or external military pressure involving Kiribati. A report on a Pacific forum noted that Kiribati’s leaders were among those absent, alongside leaders from Fiji, New Caledonia, Samoa, Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu; this is a diplomatic and regional-engagement development rather than evidence of conflict. No armed group or neighbouring state is currently identified as a direct security threat.

The main uncertainty is the country’s limited economic and security capacity, which could constrain responses to a severe political or external shock. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained violent political confrontation, the emergence of an armed domestic faction, or a hostile foreign action reaching Kiribati’s territory; continued peaceful governance and routine regional diplomacy would support the minimal level.