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Silfio country intelligence · KIR
Kiribati
0.2% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
136.49K
GDP
$349.23M
Currency
AUD
Capital
South Tarawa
Land area
811 km²
Official languages
English, Gilbertese
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Kiribati faces a 0.2% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, a minimal risk. Its long record of domestic peace, absence of a recent civil-war or insurgency tradition, small population, and geographically dispersed atolls provide few conditions for sustained armed mobilisation. Limited military capacity also reduces the likelihood of either organised internal conflict or an interstate attack reaching its territory.
Recent reporting supplied for 19 October 2026 contains no conflict-related development involving Kiribati or a neighbouring state. No prediction market is available. The principal relevant actors are the Kiribati government and domestic political groups; there is no identified armed organisation or nearby state currently signalling hostile action against Kiribati.
The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political rupture, communal confrontation, or external coercive incident could overcome the country’s established non-violent political pattern. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed mobilisation, a coup attempt, or a foreign attack on Kiribati territory; continued peaceful political competition and the absence of such activity would support the current minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Kiribati’s post-independence political history has not featured sustained insurgency, civil war, or recurrent armed violence. Its dispersed geography and limited economic and military capacity make organised conflict difficult to sustain.
- No current actor, neighbouring government, or armed group is identified as preparing violence on Kiribati territory. External security concerns involving the wider Pacific do not themselves constitute a new onset in Kiribati.
Critical indicators
- Since independence in 1979, Kiribati has maintained a largely peaceful domestic political order without a recorded pattern of armed conflict. This history is the strongest basis for the very low near-term onset risk.
- As of 19 October 2026, the supplied news review reports no dated conflict escalation involving Kiribati, and no prediction market is available. The absence of an identified armed actor or territorial dispute keeps the live risk centred on highly unlikely unforeseen developments.
Probability trend
How the Kiribati estimate has moved
Probability0.2%0.2%0.2%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Kiribati.
Regional context
Kiribati compared with its neighbours and region
Kiribati ranks number 173 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Micronesia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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