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Silfio country intelligence · PLW
Palau
0.1% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
17.66K
GDP
$345M
Currency
USD
Capital
Ngerulmud
Land area
459 km²
Official languages
English, Palauan
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Palau is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Palau has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate fighting on its territory. Its small population, remote island geography, functioning democratic institutions, and close security relationship with the United States all support a highly stable security environment.
Recent reporting provides no identified mobilisation, political violence, insurgency, or external military threat involving Palau. The principal relevant actors are the Palauan government and its domestic institutions, alongside the United States under the Compact of Free Association; no armed group or neighbouring state is presently reported to be preparing hostilities on Palauan territory.
The largest uncertainty is the possibility of an unexpected political rupture, criminal or communal violence escalating into sustained armed confrontation, or a sharp deterioration in regional relations involving a major power. Risk would rise most clearly with organised domestic violence, a coup attempt, or a foreign attack or coercive deployment affecting Palau; continued institutional stability and the existing US security relationship would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Palau’s peaceful post-independence record, limited military capacity, small population, and geographic isolation leave few plausible pathways to sustained internal or interstate conflict.
- No current reporting identifies an armed group, coup movement, domestic confrontation, or foreign military operation on Palauan territory. The Compact of Free Association provides an important external security backstop.
Critical indicators
- Since independence in 1994, Palau has avoided civil war, insurgency, coup-related armed violence, and interstate conflict on its territory, supporting the very low live risk.
- The Compact of Free Association, effective in 1994, established Palau’s close relationship with the United States and remains the principal external security context relevant to any potential threat.
Probability trend
How the Palau estimate has moved
Probability0.1%0.1%0.1%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Palau.
Regional context
Palau compared with its neighbours and region
Palau ranks number 195 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Micronesia
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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