Silfio country intelligence

Marshall Islands

Minimal risk0.5% annual probabilitystable trend

Population

36.28K

GDP

$308M

Currency

USD

Capital

Majuro

Land area

181 km²

Official languages

English, Marshallese

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Marshall Islands

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.5%

Model base probability

0.4%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

No prediction market data exists for armed conflict onset in the Marshall Islands, so adjustment relies solely on news.
Recent news highlights significant armed conflicts and escalations in other regions (Ukraine, US-Iran tensions), but no direct or indirect indications of conflict risk on Marshall Islands territory.
The Marshall Islands remains geopolitically stable with no reported internal unrest or foreign military threats.
Given the structural model’s low baseline and absence of direct conflict signals, only a modest upward adjustment is warranted to account for global instability spillover risks and general elevated global tensions.

Critical indicators

Escalation of US-Iran military strikes around the Strait of Hormuz.
Large-scale Russian missile attacks in Ukraine.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Marshall Islands

Updated July 20, 2026

apnews.com · 20 hours ago

Russian attacks kill 6 in Kyiv and other cities and expose gaps in Ukraine's air defenses

Russia has attacked Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities with missiles, drones and bombs, killing at least six people. Dozens are wounded.

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kyivpost.com · 16 hours ago

Russia Launches Ballistic Missile Attack on Kyiv – 1 Dead, 15 Injured

Russian forces launched an unprecedented barrage of approximately 40 ballistic missiles at Kyiv early Sunday morning, killing at least one person and injuring 15.

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outlookindia.com · 1 day ago

Why White House Defended Argentina's Falkland Islands Banner After World Cup Semi-Final Against England? | Outlook India

The provocative banner sparked a heated standoff between Argentine players and British officials, who condemned the act as a violation of sporting neutrality. In response, FIFA officially launched a disciplinary review

Read source