Marshall Islands

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Marshall Islands is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or sustained domestic armed violence, while its small population, remote geography, and close security relationship with the United States substantially constrain most pathways to internal conflict. Its main historical exposure has been external warfare and military testing rather than domestic armed mobilisation.

Recent reporting shows heightened Pacific concern over China’s missile test, including criticism from regional leaders on 4–5 September 2026 over the absence of advance notice. The Marshall Islands’ Compact-related defence relationship with the United States and diplomatic recognition of Taiwan place it within wider US-China strategic competition, but no reporting indicates an attack on Marshallese territory or preparations for domestic armed violence.

The main uncertainty is whether broader US-China or China-Taiwan tensions could turn the islands’ strategic facilities or surrounding waters into a direct theatre of conflict. Risk would rise most clearly after an armed incident affecting Marshallese territory; sustained regional diplomacy, continued US security commitments, and the absence of domestic armed mobilisation would support the minimal assessment.