Marshall Islands

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in the Marshall Islands is 0.1%, a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or sustained political violence, while its small population, remote geography, and established constitutional institutions limit the capacity and opportunity for domestic armed mobilisation.

Recent reporting provides no indication of an emerging armed confrontation involving the Marshall Islands or its principal security partner, the United States. The country's defence relationship under the Compact of Free Association, together with the absence of territorial disputes likely to produce fighting on its islands, remains an important stabilising factor.

The main uncertainty is the possibility of an unforeseen domestic political rupture or an external crisis affecting the islands directly. Risk would rise if organised violence, a breakdown of governmental authority, or a hostile foreign military action reached Marshallese territory; continued institutional stability and the absence of armed mobilisation would support the current minimal level.