South Africa

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in South Africa is 5.2%, a high risk. The level is supported by a history of severe political violence, apartheid-era conflict, recurring xenophobic unrest, high violent-crime levels, deep inequality, unemployment, and persistent social and economic grievances. South Africa retains capable national institutions and security forces, which constrain the likelihood that unrest develops into sustained organised conflict.

Recent reporting highlights recurring xenophobic attacks involving foreign nationals, with Nigeria’s acting high commissioner calling for an African Union-led solution. This places community violence, migration pressures, and possible diplomatic friction among the most relevant current concerns. Reporting on the Springboks–All Blacks series in Soweto instead reflects significant normal public activity and does not indicate interstate conflict; New Zealand’s involvement remains sporting rather than military.

The largest uncertainty is whether localised attacks or protests could acquire organised political leadership, broader geographic reach, or sustained armed capacity. Risk would rise most clearly after coordinated attacks, organised communal mobilisation, or a breakdown in police and political control; it would fall if authorities and regional governments successfully contain xenophobic violence and address mobilisation pressures without escalation.