Silfio country intelligence · NAM
Namibia
0.6% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country. Existing conflicts are assessed through scenario analysis.
Population
3.09M
GDP
$15.08B
Currency
NAD
Capital
Windhoek
Land area
825.62K km²
Official languages
Afrikaans, English, German, Herero, Khoekhoe, Kwangali, Lozi, Ndonga, Tswana
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Namibia is 0.6%, representing a minimal risk. Namibia has maintained peace since independence, with functioning state institutions, regular political competition, and comparatively strong territorial control. Its principal historical conflict, the war of independence, ended before independence in 1990.
Recent reporting identifies no armed confrontation or credible mobilisation by domestic groups, neighbouring states, or organised armed actors on Namibian territory. Namibia’s security environment remains shaped mainly by routine governance and regional economic and diplomatic issues, rather than conflict escalation. No prediction market is available for Namibia.
The largest uncertainty is that economic or political grievances could become more destabilising if institutions weakened or a local dispute acquired an organised armed dimension. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained political violence, armed attacks, or cross-border fighting reaching Namibia; continued peaceful transfers of power, effective policing, and the absence of organised armed mobilisation would support the current minimal risk assessment.
Strategic reasoning
- Namibia’s post-independence record of political stability, institutional continuity, and effective state control limits the opportunity for insurgency, rebellion, or a military seizure of power.
- The main relevant risk would be a sharp deterioration in domestic political order or spillover from regional conflicts, but no current reporting identifies such an escalation. This concerns new violence on Namibian territory, not Namibian involvement in activity abroad.
Critical indicators
- 21 March 1990: Namibia became independent after the end of its independence war. The settlement established the country’s current state framework and marked the beginning of a sustained period without civil war or insurgency.
- Since independence, Namibia has held regular national elections and experienced changes in political leadership without armed contestation. This established record remains an important stabilising factor for the current 12-month assessment.
Probability trend
How the Namibia estimate has moved
Probability0.6%0.6%0.5%
Aug 26
Sep 1
Sep 7
Sep 21
Sep 30
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Namibia.
Regional context
Namibia compared with its neighbours and region
Namibia ranks number 132 of 195 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Land neighbours
Southern Africa
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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