Eswatini

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Eswatini is 1.4%, a low risk. The country has limited recent experience of sustained armed conflict, and its small size, close social ties, and security institutions generally constrain the ability of armed groups to organise. Nonetheless, economic pressures, institutional weaknesses, and a history of political grievances provide a basis for episodic unrest.

Recent reporting offers no indication of organised armed mobilisation or an impending cross-border attack. Coverage instead highlights Eswatini’s military and diplomatic links with neighbouring and friendly states, including South Africa, Mozambique, Tanzania, Zimbabwe, and Lesotho; Eswatini officer cadets recently completed training in India alongside personnel from several of these countries. A study on gender-based violence points to serious social pressures but not armed-conflict organisation.

The largest uncertainty is whether political or socioeconomic grievances could combine with a sharp security-force rupture or external spillover. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained violent protests, defections or factional fighting within the security apparatus, or armed activity crossing from a neighbouring country; it would remain lower if state control and regional cooperation continue.