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Silfio country intelligence · CPV
Cape Verde
0.4% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
527.33K
GDP
$3.06B
Currency
CVE
Capital
Praia
Land area
4.03K km²
Official languages
Portuguese
Risk assessment
Risk profile
Cape Verde faces a 0.4% probability of a new armed-conflict onset within the next 12 months, making it a minimal risk. The country has a long record of internal peace since independence in 1975, no recent civil war or insurgency, and generally stable democratic institutions. Its island geography and limited military capacity also reduce the feasibility of sustained domestic armed mobilisation.
Recent reporting provides no indication of an emerging armed confrontation involving Cape Verdean state institutions, domestic groups, or neighbouring countries. The available report instead describes the training vessel INS Sudarshini completing a 19-day Atlantic passage from Cape Verde to Antigua before continuing its Lokayan-2026 deployment from Oman’s Salalah.
The main uncertainty is whether an unexpected political, criminal, or external-security shock could overcome Cape Verde’s established stability. Risk would rise most clearly with organised armed violence on the islands, a violent breakdown within state institutions, or an external attack reaching Cape Verdean territory; sustained political continuity and the absence of such incidents would support the minimal level.
Strategic reasoning
- Cape Verde’s post-independence record of political stability and absence of sustained internal armed conflict strongly limits the likelihood that disputes develop into a new conflict onset.
- Current reporting contains no credible escalation signal. The principal relevant development is maritime activity involving Cape Verde as a port of passage, not fighting on its territory.
Critical indicators
- In 2026, INS Sudarshini completed a 19-day Atlantic passage from Cape Verde to Antigua as part of the Lokayan-2026 transoceanic deployment. The report indicates routine maritime activity rather than an armed incident affecting Cape Verde.
- Since independence in 1975, Cape Verde has avoided civil war, insurgency, and interstate attack on its territory. This established record remains an important reason the live 12-month risk is minimal.
Probability trend
How the Cape Verde estimate has moved
Probability0.4%0.4%0.4%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Cape Verde.
Regional context
Cape Verde compared with its neighbours and region
Cape Verde ranks number 147 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.