Cape Verde

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Cape Verde is 0.3%, representing a minimal risk. The country has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate conflict on its territory. Its democratic institutions, peaceful transfers of power, small and cohesive population, and limited geopolitical exposure provide important protection against organised armed violence.

Recent reporting contains no identified mobilisation by domestic armed groups, military faction, or neighbouring state against Cape Verdean territory. The government and security services remain the principal relevant state actors, while the country’s island geography and distance from active mainland conflicts reduce direct spillover risks. No prediction market for Cape Verde was available.

The largest uncertainty is whether an abrupt political rupture, serious security-sector breakdown, or externally driven incident could overcome the country’s established stability. Risk would rise most clearly after sustained armed clashes, a violent coup attempt, or an attack reaching Cape Verdean territory; it would remain lower if political competition continues through constitutional institutions and security forces remain unified.