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Silfio country intelligence

Cape Verde

Low risk2.2% annual probabilitystable trend
Cape Verde flag

Cape Verde facts

Population

527.33K

GDP

$3.06B

Currency

CVE

Capital

Praia

Land area

4.03K km²

Official languages

Portuguese

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Cape Verde

NEWS

Conflict probability

2.2%

Model base probability

2.0%

Risk category

Low

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for armed conflict onset in Cape Verde, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage shows no indication of internal instability, insurgency, coup attempts, or foreign military threats directly involving Cape Verde.
  • Regional tensions and US military escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America (e.g., Operation Southern Spear, US-Iran tensions, Cuban drone crisis) do not currently implicate Cape Verde directly or suggest imminent armed conflict on its territory.
  • Cape Verde is instead highlighted positively in news for its historic World Cup performance and potential tourism boost, indicating relative domestic stability and international goodwill.

Critical indicators

  • US escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America through Operation Southern Spear
  • Regional geopolitical tensions involving US-Iran conflict and Cuban drone concerns
  • Cape Verde’s historic 2026 World Cup run and associated positive international attention

Related coverage

Latest articles about Cape Verde

Updated July 20, 2026

cepr.net · 3 days ago

US Escalation in the Caribbean and Latin America - Live Updates – CEPR

As the Trump administration escalates involvement through Operation Southern Spear, CEPR will track developments across Latin America, the Caribbean, and Washington.

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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news.fiu.edu · 3 days ago

‘Cuban drone crisis?’ FIU experts, policy leaders discuss security at United Against Nuclear Iran event | FIU News - Florida International University

University researchers and students met with former Florida governor Jeb Bush, former U.S. diplomat Mark Wallace and Congressman Carlos Gimenez to discuss the problem of Iranian drones close to home.

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