Tonga

Tonga’s 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset is 0.1%, a minimal risk. The country’s long record of domestic peace, small population, geographic isolation, limited military capacity, and absence of sustained insurgency or civil war strongly support this level. Political disagreements and past unrest have not developed into organised armed conflict.

Recent reporting is focused on Tonga’s participation in the 2026 Rugby League World Cup in Australia, rather than violence in Tonga. Tonga defeated England 30–12 in Perth on 17 October, while Latu Fainu was injured during the match. These developments involve Tongan athletes overseas and do not indicate conflict on Tongan territory. No prediction market for Tonga was identified.

The main uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political crisis, serious communal dispute, or external incident could overcome Tonga’s established pattern of peaceful dispute management. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed clashes, an organised rebellion, or a foreign attack reaching Tonga; continued political stability and the absence of such events would support the minimal level.