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Silfio country intelligence

Tonga

Minimal risk0.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Tonga flag

Tonga facts

Population

103.74K

GDP

$679.22M

Currency

TOP

Capital

Nuku'alofa

Land area

747 km²

Official languages

English, Tongan

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Tonga

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.5%

Model base probability

0.4%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for armed conflict onset in Tonga, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • Current news highlights significant regional and global military tensions, notably the ongoing US-Iran war with recent escalations, which increase general geopolitical instability in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • Southeast Asia is undergoing military modernization and increased armament, indicating heightened regional security concerns that could indirectly affect nearby Pacific island states like Tonga.
  • No direct reports or credible indications of internal unrest, insurgency, or foreign military threats specifically targeting Tonga were found.

Critical indicators

  • US-Iran war escalations including Iranian attacks on US military assets and US retaliatory airstrikes (July 2026).
  • Regional military modernization and increased armament in Southeast Asia amid growing geopolitical turbulence.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Tonga

Updated July 20, 2026

www.thepaperboy.com · 2 days ago

Thepaperboy

Archive · Sat 18 Jul · US Edition · Loading 12 US front pages for 18 July 2026

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oilprice.com · 2 days ago

Geopolitical Risk Premium Returns as Crude Posts Biggest Weekly Gain in Months | OilPrice.com

Renewed military conflict between the United States and Iran, combined with bullish U.S. inventory data, drove WTI crude to its strongest weekly gain in months as traders rapidly rebuilt a geopolitical risk premium.

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thediplomat.com · 2 days ago

The Intensifying Geopolitics of Southeast Asia’s Military Modernization

At a time of growing regional turbulence, nations across the region are seeking to equip themselves with more and better armaments.

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