Tonga

The live 12-month probability is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Tonga’s political system has generally been stable, and the country has no recent record of civil war, insurgency, or interstate warfare. Its small population, geographic isolation, limited military capacity, and reliance on regional diplomacy further reduce the likelihood that domestic disputes would develop into sustained armed violence.

Recent reporting provides no indication of fighting or mobilisation on Tongan territory. The main reported development concerns unconfirmed claims that about five Tongans were arrested by US Immigration and Customs Enforcement at Salt Lake City airport, an event occurring outside Tonga and therefore not a qualifying conflict onset. No principal domestic, neighbouring, or armed-group actor is currently reported to be preparing violence in Tonga.

The largest uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political crisis, serious communal dispute, or external confrontation could overcome Tonga’s established stability. Risk would rise if organised armed violence, military intervention, or a hostile cross-border attack reached Tongan territory; it would remain lower if political disagreements continued to be managed through institutions and regional diplomacy.