All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Samoa

Minimal risk0.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Samoa flag

Samoa facts

Population

219.31K

GDP

$1.29B

Currency

WST

Capital

Apia

Land area

2.84K km²

Official languages

English, Samoan

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Samoa

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.5%

Model base probability

0.4%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Samoa, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage shows heightened geopolitical tensions globally, especially US-Iran conflict escalation and regional instability in places like Sudan and the Gulf, but no direct or indirect indications of conflict risk involving Samoa.
  • The US plans to auction deep-sea mining rights around American Samoa, which could increase strategic interest or economic competition in the region, slightly raising potential for localized tensions or disputes.
  • Given the structural model’s low baseline and absence of direct conflict signals on Samoa itself, only a modest upward adjustment is warranted to reflect increased global instability and potential indirect spillover risks.

Critical indicators

  • US-Iran military escalation and strikes in the Gulf region.
  • US auctioning deep-sea mining rights around American Samoa.

Related coverage

Latest articles about Samoa

Updated July 20, 2026

dw.com · 2 days ago

Sao Tome and Principe balances global powers

As voters head to the polls, Sao Tome and Principe is attracting international scrutiny. A military agreement with Russia has heightened interest in the strategically located archipelago.

Read source

amp.dw.com · 2 days ago

Amid elections, Sao Tome and Principe balances global powers

As voters head to the polls, Sao Tome and Principe is attracting international scrutiny. A military agreement with Russia has heightened interest in the strategically located archipelago.

Read source

www.npr.org · 1 day ago

Why is it so hard for the U.S. to win wars? : NPR

U.S. presidents have promised short, decisive wars in Afghanistan, Iraq and Iran. All have proved much more difficult than advertised and fallen far short of the political goals set at the beginning.

Read source