Samoa

The 12-month probability of a new armed conflict on Samoa’s territory is 0.2%, representing a minimal risk. Samoa has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coup-related violence, or interstate conflict, while its small population, cohesive society, and functioning political institutions generally support peaceful dispute resolution.

Recent reporting provides no specific indication of mobilisation by domestic armed groups, political violence, or an external threat involving Samoa. The main relevant actors are the government, opposition parties, and customary authorities, none of which is currently associated with organised armed activity. No prediction market is available for Samoa.

The largest uncertainty is whether an unforeseen political rupture, severe communal dispute, or external security shock could overwhelm established non-violent mechanisms. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained political violence, the emergence of an organised armed faction, or a foreign military confrontation reaching Samoan territory; it would remain lower if political disputes continue to be managed through elections, courts, and customary institutions.