Tuvalu

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset on Tuvaluan territory is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Tuvalu has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate fighting, while its small population, remote location, stable political institutions, and limited military significance reduce the likelihood of sustained armed violence at home.

Recent reporting centres on China’s submarine-launched missile test, which landed in international waters near Tuvalu and Naoero, rather than on an attack against Tuvaluan territory. Tuvalu’s diplomatic ties with Taiwan place it within wider China–Taiwan competition, but there is no reported mobilisation or armed confrontation involving Tuvalu, China, Taiwan, Australia, or other Pacific governments.

The main uncertainty is whether broader strategic rivalry could produce a future incident closer to Tuvalu or pressure over its diplomatic alignment. Risk would rise most clearly if an armed attack, coercive military deployment, or sustained confrontation reached Tuvaluan territory; continued regional diplomacy, advance notification of military tests, and the absence of domestic armed mobilisation would support the minimal level.