All countries

Silfio country intelligence

Tuvalu

Minimal risk0.5% annual probabilitystable trend
Tuvalu flag

Tuvalu facts

Population

9.49K

GDP

$57.35M

Currency

AUD

Capital

Funafuti

Land area

26 km²

Official languages

English, Tuvaluan

Population and GDP: World Bank. Country facts: bundled reference data.

Risk assessment

Silfio assessment of Tuvalu

NEWS

Conflict probability

0.5%

Model base probability

0.4%

Risk category

Minimal

Strategic reasoning

  • No prediction market data exists for Tuvalu, so adjustment relies solely on news signals.
  • News coverage shows no direct indication of armed conflict or instability on Tuvalu’s territory; no reports of domestic unrest, insurgency, or foreign military threats.
  • The only Tuvalu-specific news is about discovery of WWII munitions (11 tonnes) underwater, which poses a latent safety risk but does not currently indicate armed conflict onset.
  • Regional geopolitical tensions (US-Iran war, Pacific diplomatic shifts) do not directly implicate Tuvalu in any new armed conflict risk.

Critical indicators

  • Discovery of 11 tonnes of WWII munitions in Tuvalu’s northern atoll.
  • Ongoing heightened global geopolitical tensions (US-Iran conflict, Pacific diplomatic pressures).

Related coverage

Latest articles about Tuvalu

Updated July 20, 2026

cyprus-mail.com · 17 hours ago

The anatomy of a geopolitical tragedy | Cyprus Mail

Cyprus’ modern history is defined by missed diplomatic opportunities, ideological blindness and the cold calculations of regional powers. Since 1974, the events leading to the island’s partition have been clouded by revisionism. Political groups describe the division as either a sudden ...

Read source

theepochtimes.com · 4 hours ago

US State Department Expresses Concerns Over Papua New Guinea’s Closure of Taiwan Office | The Epoch Times

‘This is yet another example of Beijing’s intimidation campaign against Taiwan,’ a State Department spokesperson said.

Read source

theguardian.com · 2 days ago

White House backs Argentina players over Falklands banner in World Cup semi-final | World Cup 2026 | The Guardian

White House Fifa taskforce chief defends Argentina footballers, saying US believes in free speech

Read source