Silfio country intelligence · TUV
Tuvalu
0.1% annual new-conflict probability
How to read these probabilities: Scores estimate the probability of a new armed conflict starting within the next 12 months. Ongoing conflicts can have a saturation effect, reducing the modelled probability of an additional conflict onset. A low or falling score does not imply less severe ongoing fighting or a safer country.
Population
9.49K
GDP
$57.35M
Currency
AUD
Capital
Funafuti
Land area
26 km²
Official languages
English, Tuvaluan
Risk assessment
Risk profile
The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Tuvalu is 0.1%, representing a minimal risk. Tuvalu has no recent history of civil war, insurgency, coups, or interstate conflict on its territory. Its small population, geographic isolation, limited military capacity, and generally stable democratic institutions further reduce the likelihood of sustained domestic or foreign armed violence.
Recent reporting reviewed on 19 October 2026 provides no identified escalation involving Tuvaluan state institutions, domestic armed groups, or neighbouring states. Tuvalu has no standing force capable of generating an internal conflict, while its security relationships with Australia and New Zealand provide important external reassurance. No prediction market was available for Tuvalu.
The main uncertainty is that the country’s limited capacity could make it vulnerable to an exceptional political breakdown, external coercion, or disruption linked to wider Pacific tensions. Risk would rise most clearly with a coup attempt, organised armed mobilisation, or a foreign military attack reaching Tuvaluan territory; it would remain lower if political institutions and regional security partnerships continue operating normally.
Strategic reasoning
- Tuvalu’s absence of a recent armed-conflict history, combined with its small, remote population and stable political system, leaves few evident pathways to a new internal conflict.
- No current reporting identifies an armed actor, political breakdown, or neighbouring-state confrontation involving Tuvalu. Regional partnerships, particularly with Australia and New Zealand, are important stabilising factors.
- Any violence involving Tuvaluan personnel or citizens abroad would not constitute the target event unless fighting reached Tuvalu itself; the relevant risk is a new onset on Tuvaluan territory.
Critical indicators
- On 19 October 2026, reviewed reporting contained no identified armed confrontation, coup attempt, insurgency, or foreign attack on Tuvaluan territory, while no prediction market was available for the country.
- Tuvalu’s continuing reliance on regional security relationships, especially with Australia and New Zealand, remains relevant because external support raises the political and practical costs of coercion or armed intervention against the country.
Probability trend
How the Tuvalu estimate has moved
Probability0.1%0.1%0.1%
Sep 30
Oct 5
Oct 12
Oct 15
Oct 19
Date
Current conflicts
Source: UCDP
No active conflicts in Tuvalu.
Regional context
Tuvalu compared with its neighbours and region
Tuvalu ranks number 190 of 196 in new conflict outbreak risk.
Figures are each country's modelled probability of a new armed conflict on its territory within the next 12 months. Select any country to open its full profile.
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