Comoros

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Comoros is 2.4%, making this a low risk. The country’s history of coups, separatist challenges and political instability—especially on Anjouan—supports continued exposure, while limited state capacity and difficult relations among the islands can complicate crisis management.

Recent reporting supplied for review contains no specific armed incident or mobilisation indicating an imminent onset on Comorian territory. The principal relevant actors remain the central government, island-level political authorities and the security forces; tensions among them could become significant if a political dispute escalated beyond protests or institutional confrontation.

The largest uncertainty is whether a future electoral, constitutional or succession dispute could revive island-based opposition or trigger intervention by security forces. Risk would rise most clearly with sustained armed clashes involving domestic actors, a mutiny, or renewed separatist mobilisation; it would be reinforced by orderly political transfers and effective containment of disputes through civilian institutions.