Comoros

The 12-month probability of a new armed-conflict onset in Comoros is 2.3%, representing a low risk. The main supporting factors are the country’s history of repeated coups and political instability since independence, limited institutional capacity, economic vulnerability, and the potential for political disputes to become confrontational.

Recent reporting supplied for 19 October 2026 contains no specific conflict escalation involving Comoros, and no prediction market is available. The principal domestic actors are the national government, security forces, opposition groups, and politically mobilised communities across the islands. These conditions support continued monitoring, but there is no identified current armed campaign or external military threat reaching Comorian territory.

The largest uncertainty is whether a contested political process, leadership dispute, or security-force split could rapidly overwhelm established restraints. Risk would rise most clearly after sustained lethal clashes, a breakdown within the armed forces, or organised opposition mobilisation; it would fall with a peaceful political settlement and continued security-force cohesion.